Factors which predict interpersonal violence in South Africa

Abstract

Background: This paper responds to the call for an extensive research agenda to be developed and designed to identify, plan and then implement prevention programmes with respect to violent crime in South Africa. This study began that process by identifying the factors that predict violence, and then attempting to interpret the implications for violence prevention programmes. This research is grounded in literature on the built environment.

Method: The study was based on the responses of 2 399 South Africans, collected in 2011, during the Fifth Round Afrobarometer Survey. The study concentrated on 259 respondents who reported that either they or someone else in their family had been the victim of violence, defined as being physically attacked, in the last year.

Results: Logistical regression analysis identified six factors that predicted physical violence in South Africa. These were being a victim of property crime, poverty, gender, age, fear of crime in the home and the respondents’ faith. Surprising findings relate to what may be called re-victimisation, whereby 60% of victims of violence were also victims of property crime. Fear of crime was another predictor of violence victimisation. Many of the respondents who reported having a fear of crime had been crime victims.

Conclusion: These findings suggest that victimisation could be the basis of crime prevention programmes in South Africa. Target hardening should be the mechanism used when implementing violence prevention programmes. Prevention and law enforcement personnel need to respond to reported incidents of property and/or violence victimisation, and then attempt to prepare victims to protect both their premises and their person.